12/26/2023 0 Comments 2008 hurricane track![]() Simulated occurrence of all tropical storms for (top) present-day (middle) late 21st century, RCP4.5 CMIP5 multimodel ensemble or (bottom) difference: late 21st century minus present-day conditions. The hurricanes were simulated using higher resolution atmospheric models, with large-scale conditions taken from an ensemble of 18 global climate models. Tracks of simulated Atlantic Category 4 and 5 hurricanes for the present climate and for a warmer climate condition projected for the late 21st century. The storms that do occur in the warmer climate simulation are more intense on average than those in the control (present day) simulation. This controls for differences in storm frequency between the control and warming experiments or between the control and observations. Right: The normalized histogram (right) was obtained by dividing the values from each curve on the left by the total number of storms observed or simulated during the 27 yr period. There is an increase in the number of the very strongest simulated storms in the warm climate, relative to the control. The strongest observed hurricane intensities are not reproduced by the model, and there is a strong reduction in the number of storms in the warm climate experiments, compared to the control (present day). Black curve shows observed distribution, blue curve the simulated distribution for present day climate, and red curve the simulated distribution for the late 21st century (IPCC A1B forcing scenario). Left: Distributions of wind speeds for Atlantic tropical storms and hurricanes (August-October). observed Atlantic hurricane counts (Aug.-Oct) for 1980-2012 using the regional downscaling model of Knutson et al. ![]() Only the top three curves have statistically significant trends. Vertical axis tic marks denote one standard deviation intervals (shown by the ? symbol). Bottom green curve depicts August-October anomaly of MDR SST minus tropical mean SST. Red curve shows adjusted Atlantic hurricane counts that include an estimate of “missed” hurricanes in the pre-satellite era. Blue curve shows unadjusted Atlantic hurricane counts. Green curves depict global annual-mean temperature anomalies (top) and August-October Main Development Region (MDR) SST anomalies (second from top). Source: CCSP 3.3 (2008), Figure 2.17, page 60 Figure 4įive-year running means of tropical Atlantic indices. Blue curve shows the adjustment for estimated number of missing storms. Reconstruction of Atlantic tropical storms (1878 to current) with adjustments during the pre-satellite era (1878-1965) based on weather reporting ship track density in the Atlantic. The upper panel statistically models hurricane activity based on “local” tropical Atlantic SST, while the bottom panel statistically models hurricane activity based on tropical Atlantic SST relative to SST averaged over the remainder of the tropics.Both comparisons with historical data and future projections using this approach are shown. Two different statistical models of Atlantic hurricane activity vs sea surface temperature (SST). Global Warming and Hurricanes Figures Figure 1
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